AMAZING WE NEVER THOUGHT OF THIS – AT 7:55 P.M. ET:  There is an aftermath to the recent crash that killed so many top Polish leaders.  I'm surprised no one thought of this factor earlier, but superlative defense reporter Bill Gertz is on the case:

The recent crash of a Polish military transport that killed most of Warsaw's senior civilian and military leaders was not only a human catastrophe for a key U.S. ally. NATO sources said that, in addition to the loss of nearly 100 pro-U.S. Polish leaders, the crash provided Moscow with a windfall of secrets.

The crash killed Polish President Lech Kaczynski in western Russia on April 10 and decapitated Poland's military, killing two service chiefs, key military aides and several national security officials, many of whom were carrying computers and pocket memory sticks that contained sensitive NATO data.

Perhaps the most significant compromise, according to a NATO intelligence source, is that the Russians are suspected of obtaining ultrasecret codes used by NATO militaries for secure satellite communications.

The compromise of the codes is considered what electronic spies call a "break" for Moscow code-breakers. New NATO codes almost certainly were issued to allied militaries immediately after the crash.

The new codes are a good move, but they don't solve the entire problem:

But if the Russian electronic intelligence service, known as the Federal Agency of Government Communications and Information, was able to recover and use the communication key code from the wreckage, electronic spies will be able to decode months' or perhaps years' worth of scrambled communications that are routinely gathered electronically for just such an occasion.

The coded communications, if decrypted, would reveal some of NATO's most intimate secrets, such as plans for defenses and even the identities of agents or allied eavesdropping sources.

COMMENT:  Obviously, this will increase suspicions about the cause of the crash.  Russia is not our friend.  Just in the last day it has tongue-lashed the United States and warned us about imposing sanctions on Iran, and it has made a deal to deliver advanced weapons to Syria. 

I have absolutely no evidence that Russia caused the crash, but Moscow has clearly benefited from it.

May 14, 2010